Year Two

Five years is a long time. In the hyper-speed, attention-deficit 2020s, it's an eternity. Each NBA team will play four hundred or more games over the course of The Bet. Dynasties will rise and fall. Contenders will emerge and recede. Superstars will retire. Unknown teenagers will replace them. ACLs will rupture. Banners will hang. These facts are the broad strokes of the five-year canvas. It's the details that will clarify the picture.

The slow reveal of these details should mount suspense as The Bet progresses. The twists and turns should lead to a satisfying climax. But one manager is threatening to snuff out the drama before the story reaches its halfway point. Like a breakaway bicyclist hunting a stage win, he's sprinted beyond reach of the trailing peloton. If the gap grows too large, the chasers will lose hope before the Bet culminates. Here's where the competitors stand early in Year Two:

 

6. Team Zaxel: Rockets, Pelicans, 

Raptors, Pistons, Knicks

 

Is it a bad thing when your first-round pick trades its superstar and embarks on a full-scale rebuild one year into a 5-year wins bet? Yes. Is it trouble when none of your five teams has a winning record or a positive point differential a month into the season? Certainly. Is it cause for alarm when the last team you drafted has the most wins on your team? It is. Is it panic time when your most productive team is the New York Knickerbockers? Absolutely. 

Here's what I wrote about Zaxelrod's Houston selection two summers ago:

Houston was a dangerous and fragile choice for the first round, let alone the top half of it. Both their stars will be in their thirties for the duration of this bet and the cupboard is pretty bare behind them. We also have no idea if the two highest-usage players in the league can coexist. Perhaps Zaxel wanted to attach himself to Houston's brilliant and innovative GM, Daryl Morey, but Morey may not survive the Harden/Westbrook experiment if it fails. 

In his team ranking, I highlighted the downside Zaxel had courted, noting he was more likely to finish in last than the three managers behind him. But I was intrigued by the upside of the Rockets, Raptors & Pelicans and ranked him third. Eighteen months later the Rockets are rebuilding, the Raps are in limbo and the Pels are still trying to get off the ground. That upside has been disparately scattered to the corners of the NBA universe - just like Harden, Westbrook and Morey.

5. Team Smucker: Bucks, Jazz, 

Wolves, Magic, Hornets 

Smuck's big sweat - in the Bet and real life- was Giannis sticking around his hometown. The Greek Freak obliged. Smucker breathed a sigh of relief, and turned to see his uphill battle is actually steeper than ever. His decent teams flamed out in the Bubble playoffs, leaving him 36 wins out of first. This season he's got just two teams capable of winning a playoff series. The second-best player in his pool (Karl-Anthony Towns) has been mired in maladies for the better part of a year, diminishing Minnesota from feeble to fatal. Markelle Fultz tore his ACL just as the light started to flicker. Even if Giannis figures out the playoffs and captains multiple championships into Milwaukee Bay, Smucker will likely be too busy bailing water out the back of his ship for it to matter.

 

4. Team Keith: Nuggets, Spurs, 

Blazers, Hawks, Suns

Keith was ranked last to begin the Bet and his team compiled the fewest wins the first season. Scarily, that anemic 177 win total would've been seven fewer if Mike Conley's buzzer-beater had rimmed in instead of out. Keith's best team so far this season is actually his last pick, Phoenix. He doesn't appear to have a 2021 title contender in his arsenal. But Keith moves up the standings because that arsenal doesn't contain any grenades either. Denver has actually won the fewest games of his teams so far this season. Portland is the only one with a negative point differential. Most of his franchises appear to be on a positive - or at least stably flat - trajectory.

Keith spotted Kris a 43-game lead over the course of the Bubble Season, so any comeback hopes he may reserve must be meager. Before flying, Keith needs to learn to walk. If he can get through this season without calamity, with each of his teams notching respectable totals, Keith's harbor of Hope may finally re-open.

 

3. Team Hoedy: Warriors, Lakers, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Bulls

Dave has a lot to be excited about. The Lakers won the first championship and they're favorites to take the second. Luka Doncic is the leading MVP candidate. He's 21 years old. Ja Morant is confirmed awesome. He's also 21. His team is one of the smartest, most likable franchises, immediately competitive despite being drafted behind teams like Minnesota and Detroit. Even the Bulls win on occasion. 

Dave's problem is his first round pick. Golden State won four fewer games than anyone the first year of the bet. They got a good young big out of the tank but not a transcendent star. With Klay Thompson back on the shelf, they're scraping out wins this season like chunks of ice off a frozen windshield. They have one of the worst point differentials in the West and middling championship odds. Perhaps the Warriors return to winning ways over the second half of the bet, but Dave may fall out of striking distance by then. He'll need playoff runs from the Lakers, Mavs and Grizz to have a chance.

 

2. Team Sigal: Sixers, Pacers, 

Celtics, Kings, Cavs 

Sigal's trio of Eastern Conference contenders should keep him at the front of the peloton while waiting and hoping for the leader to falter. Eighteen months ago, Sigal took advantage of short-term squeamishness to mine one of the draft's top values in Boston. Philly finally imported a real coach to handle their young superstars. Indiana keeps winning, even as the faces of the franchise change. Sigal's problems are his last two picks. He was essentially forced into taking Sacramento at the end of the fourth round and literally forced into Cleveland to wrap it. The Kings aren't bereft of talent, but they still haven't located a superstar and don't appear to be progressing. Collin Sexton's emergence as a competent scorer has spurred the Cavs to a few early-season victories, but they're light years from re-relevance. Sigal will need all of his teams to improve over the duration of the bet to have a chance.

1. Team Kris: Clippers, Nets, 

Heat, Thunder, Wizards

 

Kris drafted with an eye to the future but reaped a surprisingly bountiful first harvest. All his teams made the bubble, with OKC and Kyrie-less Brooklyn comfortably exceeding expectations. The Clips melted down a few wins short of expectation, but Miami more than made up for them. Together these teams rabbited Kris out to a hefty 24-win lead after the first season.

Since the Bubble Kris has watched his fortunes further improve. Kevin Durant returned to form, the Clippers put the Bubble behind them, Washington swapped John Wall out for Russell Westbrook and The Beard washed ashore in Brooklyn. Even the tanking Thunder have managed to win as many games as they've lost this season. Kris had the best-looking team after the draft and he crushed his competition the first season. While other squads have soured, his has only gotten sweeter. It's all turning up Kris.