The Bet was born in the summer of 2019, in the wake of the NBA's most ballyhooed free agency. Drafters sifted through the debris of that free agency, delicately weighing each team's talent level along with their longterm prospects. Savvy drafters considered contracts, chemistry and culture. Burning questions percolated the first two rounds of the draft: Had the LA Clippers really become the league's model franchise? Would the Process finally come to completion? Could James Harden and Russell Westbrook coexist? Would Kevin Durant return to full strength from a torn Achilles? How about Klay Thompson, coming off an ACL? Would Giannis choose to live his life in the Upper Midwest, or view the region merely as a frigid formative sojourn like this blog's author?
Two and a half years later, most of these questions have been answered. Some of those answers have been damning. Others have been inspiring. But like any good suspense, The Bet asks more questions than it answers. How will the Ben Simmons saga end? Will Brooklyn's superteam ever unite? Can the Lakers figure it out? When will some of the league's top talents (Kawhi Leonard, Zion Williamson, Jamal Murray, among others) return to the court? Are upstarts like Chicago and Cleveland here to stay? How many future draft picks can be crammed into one small city in Oklahoma?
Halfway through The Bet, just one manager has seen his hopes dashed. Favorites have emerged, only to be dragged back into the fracas. Two managers sit on the precipice of irrelevance, though they may not yet realize it. And three drafters find themselves locked in a captivating truel. Here's how the teams stack up at The Bet's midpoint.
6. Team Zaxel: Rockets, Pelicans, Raptors, Pistons, Knicks
The Houston Rockets won five fewer games than any other team in the Western Conference last season and reside at the bottom of the conference again this year. They were Zach's first round pick. The Rockets are obviously thrusting this squad into the ground, but Zaxel's second round pick appears almost as disastrous. New Orleans has won twenty fewer games than any other second round pick, with little hope David Griffin & company can turn it around. Zach's third selection, the Toronto Raptors, finished eighteen games below .500 last year. His fourth pick, Detroit, has been the worst team in all of the Bet by an "impressive" margin of 13 games. Zaxelrod's only silver lining is the New York Knicks, who are exceeding last-round expectations with surprising mediocrity. That's the best thing we can say about this pathetic bunch: the last round pick is surprisingly mediocre. Zaxel's team is in last place by an ever-expanding chasm that will likely hit triple digits before the end of the season.
Honestly I feel bad trashing Zaxelrod as this blog has constituted the majority of our interactions over the last few years (a ghosted trade offer in our crappy fantasy football league does not count as an interaction). Believe me man, I haven't forgotten those old email exchanges - you helped change my life for the better and I am eternally grateful for what you did for me and are doing for the world.
5. Team Sigal: 76ers, Celtics, Pacers, Kings, Cavaliers
Fortune has shifted quickly beneath Sigal's shoes. When we last checked in, he was #2 in the Power Rankings thanks to a "trio of Eastern Conference contenders [that] should keep him at the front of the peloton." His biggest concern was Cleveland, a team "light years from re-relevance." A year later, the Cavs are pushing up the Eastern Conference's leaderboard, the hottest team in the East. But that alleged trio of contenders has fallen by the wayside. Philly's Process is stalled on the shooting arm of Ben Simmons. Boston has been .500 two seasons in a row. Indiana is contending for lottery balls, not conference championships. They've delivered Sigal three wins since Christmas. He drafted just one team from the West, and they're the toilet of the NBA: Sacramento's waste cycle has been repeating so long we take it for granted. Instead of surging forward, Sigal has drifted to the back of the chasing peloton. There's little reason to believe his team is capable of hanging with the peloton, let alone catching the leader.
What happened? If we zoom out, we can see this squad simply lacks talent. There aren't many players to fear behind Joel Embiid. Sigal can only really count on Tatum, Sabonis and Jaylen Brown before getting to unproven youngsters like Mobley, Fox and Garland. Philly is the only team here capable of winning the 2022 title, but their distant hopes are less farfetched than Sigal's. These teams just aren't talented enough to rouse a comeback. Zaxelrod has a stranglehold on the Bet's punching bag role, but Sigal's prospects are nearly as bleak.
4. Team Smucker: Bucks, Jazz, Wolves, Magic, Hornets
Kevin Durant's shoe permitted Smucker nine more victories and a satisfying hometown championship. Buoyed by that title run, Milwaukee's win total sits comfortably ahead of all others. It's all glory in Titletown. Smucker's second pick, the Utah Jazz, sit in a cluster of squads competing for second place. Despite these two stalwarts, Smucker sits in fourth place. The reason is obvious: his other three teams suck. Hard.
LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges & co. have vitalized Charlotte into the league's highest scoring team. They'll be a fun playoff team this spring. The future is bright in the Hornet's Nest. But an anemic 78 wins the first two seasons provides little margin for error. Smucker's problem is the teams he took at the 3/4 turn - Orlando and Minnesota. Only one team (Detroit) has performed worse than these teams. Smuck and I misread the Magic as "intent on a half-decade of average basketball." Average would now be a revelation for the miserable Magic, who used injuries to Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz to springboard into the tanking pool. They've won just three home games this season. Minnesota is finally showing signs of life, but it looks like too little too late for the 18th overall pick. What appeared to be a balanced portfolio of teams in 2019 has morphed into an unlikely collection of blue chips and shitcoins. Smuck will need those shitcoins to moon ASAP to have any chance - not to mention the realization of the league's worst nightmare: multiple Utah/Milwaukee Finals.
3. Team Kris: Clippers, Nets, Heat, Thunder, Wizards
Kris looked like a runaway train the last time we checked in. The Nets and Clippers were the favorites to win their conferences and meet in the 2021 Finals. Miami was coming off their own Finals run. Even OKC and Washington were lingering near .500.
But injuries derailed the train. Brooklyn's Big Three have traded off DNPs for a year straight. Kawhi Leonard tore his ACL in the playoffs; the Clips scrapped out a few more playoff wins without him, but haven't been able to overcome the absence of their second star, Paul George. They're losing to the Wizards by 35 as I write this. Their season is in peril. OKC's bottom fell out as expected and they now possess the worst record in the West. There's no indication they'll begin converting their stockpile of draft picks into wins before the end of The Bet. Washington has managed to hold onto Bradley Beal thus far, but their devotion to mediocrity feels tenuous.
Fortunately for Kris, Miami has surged back to the top of the East. They're The Bet's top third round pick thus far. If the Heat can continue to compete and his teams regain their health, Kris will have a chance to stave off the managers breathing down his neck...or perhaps more likely, catch back up to them in the late stages of The Bet.
2. Team Keith: Nuggets, Trailblazers, Spurs, Hawks, Suns
I've underrated Keith from the start. I had him last in the original rankings, noting his lack of title contenders and top-end talent. A year ago I ranked him fourth, dissing his "meager" comeback hopes while saying he needed to learn to walk before flying. Keith has indeed been flying up the standings, cutting a 43-win year one deficit to just 8. He has the league's winningest team (Phoenix, who I embarrassingly dismissed last season) and plenty of superheroes: Nikola Jokic, Trae Young, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker.
Am I underrating Keith again? Quite possibly. The top three is fiercely competitive. It may just be sex appeal that's keeping Keith from the top spot. Nuggets/Blazers/Spurs/Suns is about as unsexy as teams get in the West...but they have piled up wins. Keith has managed to navigate the terrain of The Bet without hitting a landmine. This may be as ugly as it gets for the Blazers and Spurs - and the Nuggets, who are still generating wins with a skeleton crew behind Jokic. Atlanta is disappointing this season, but the future there is still fairly bright.
The real reason Keith is exceeding expectations is the silver bullet Suns. Phoenix has won 137 games during The Bet - tied for second overall and fifty more than any other last round pick. Snagging Phoenix gave Keith a tremendous ace in the hole, a champion to hoist his surrounding meh. Phoenix has risen Keith from the Bet's ashes to its skies, as he will likely seize the win lead this season. Keith has learned to fly. But other great gladiators are sharing this rarified air. Maintaining a lead of his own may prove more challenging than disposing the lead of another.
1. Team Hoedy: Warriors, Lakers, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Bulls
It feels strange to rank Dave first. He's third in wins, still trailing Kris by a substantial 22-win margin. His flagship team, the Los Angeles Lakers, has been swooning since last spring. His first round pick, Golden State, has won far fewer games than every other first-rounder but Houston. The Warriors rank third-to-last in wins among teams drafted in the first two rounds and just 17th overall. The exciting young Dallas Mavericks have had a rocky season, though they have been heating up lately.
Yet Dave is poised to seize control of The Bet over its second half. His outlook is bolstered by the emergence of two surprise contenders he took with his final picks. Memphis has won 33 games this season, third most in the NBA. They're well ahead of the other fourth round picks and figure to extend the margin. Led by magnificent Morant, Memphis's prognosis for the second half of The Bet is as optimistic as anyone's. Meanwhile Chicago suddenly, shockingly stands second in the Eastern Conference after daringly shoving their meager stack of chips into the middle. Chicago's expectation isn't quite as confident as Memphis going forward, but it's as cheerful as any final round pick's.
Dave played the long game on draft day. He selected GSW with his first pick, knowing their second best player wouldn't play The Bet's first year (unknowing, of course, that Klay would miss another 1.5 seasons with an even worse injury). He bet on the ascension of Luka Doncic in the third round and a sight-unseen rookie from Murray State in the fourth. Dave is working The Bet like a blackjack player with a hot deck: his gambles have yet to pay off, but the odds are in his favor going forward.
P.S. The Clippers erased that 35 point deficit to Washington and won! That should give every manager a shred of hope. Except Zaxel. He's facing a 144 point deficit.
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